Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Monday 06 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 9605 (+1163) 336327 (+26194) 17245 (+2504) 309477 (+22527)
Spain 12641 (+694) 131646 (+5478) 38080 (+3861) 80925 (+923)
United Kingdom 4934 (+621) 47806 (+5903) 135 (+0) 42737 (+5282)
Italy 15887 (+525) 128948 (+4316) 21815 (+819) 91246 (+2972)
France 8078 (+518) 92839 (+2886) 16183 (+745) 68578 (+1623)
Belgium 1447 (+164) 19691 (+1260) 3751 (+504) 14493 (+592)
Iran 3603 (+151) 58226 (+2483) 19736 (+0) 34887 (+2332)
Germany 1584 (+140) 100123 (+4031) 28700 (+2300) 69839 (+1591)
Netherlands 1766 (+115) 17851 (+1224) 250 (+0) 15835 (+1109)
Turkey 574 (+73) 27069 (+3135) 1042 (+256) 25453 (+2806)
Switzerland 715 (+49) 21100 (+595) 6415 (+0) 13970 (+546)
Canada 280 (+49) 15512 (+1600) 2942 (+347) 12290 (+1204)
Brazil 486 (+41) 11130 (+770) 127 (+0) 10517 (+729)
India 117 (+31) 4288 (+1206) 328 (+99) 3843 (+1076)
Portugal 295 (+29) 11278 (+754) 75 (+0) 10908 (+725)
Sweden 401 (+28) 6830 (+387) 205 (+0) 6224 (+359)
Algeria 152 (+22) 1320 (+69) 90 (+0) 1078 (+47)
Ireland 158 (+21) 4994 (+390) 25 (+0) 4811 (+369)
Mexico 79 (+19) 1890 (+202) 633 (+0) 1178 (+183)
Denmark 179 (+18) 4369 (+292) 1327 (+44) 2863 (+230)
Austria 204 (+18) 12051 (+270) 2998 (+491) 8849 (-239)
Poland 94 (+15) 4102 (+475) 134 (+18) 3874 (+442)
Morocco 70 (+11) 1021 (+102) 76 (+10) 875 (+81)
Peru 83 (+10) 2281 (+535) 989 (+75) 1209 (+450)
Norway 71 (+9) 5687 (+137) 32 (+0) 5584 (+128)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 66076 (+4742) 1190206 (+72265) 184460 (+15047)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 71876 ( +5560) 1260316 ( +76157) 205966 ( +19081)
Tue 07 April 2020 77327 ( +5451) 1332969 ( +72653) 225178 ( +19212)
Wed 08 April 2020 82594 ( +5267) 1401435 ( +68466) 244213 ( +19035)
Thu 09 April 2020 87611 ( +5017) 1465216 ( +63781) 262774 ( +18562)
Fri 10 April 2020 92326 ( +4715) 1523997 ( +58781) 280596 ( +17821)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 3329 (+3) 81669 (+30) 76964 (+209)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 3260 ( +0) 81037 ( +0) 75586 ( +61)
Tue 07 April 2020 3260 ( +0) 81037 ( +0) 75639 ( +53)
Wed 08 April 2020 3260 ( +0) 81037 ( +0) 75685 ( +46)
Thu 09 April 2020 3260 ( +0) 81037 ( +0) 75726 ( +40)
Fri 10 April 2020 3260 ( +0) 81037 ( +0) 75761 ( +35)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 12641 (+694) 131646 (+5478) 38080 (+3861)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 12975 ( +500) 135130 ( +4600) 40955 ( +3209)
Tue 07 April 2020 13392 ( +417) 139086 ( +3956) 43835 ( +2880)
Wed 08 April 2020 13735 ( +343) 142452 ( +3366) 46353 ( +2518)
Thu 09 April 2020 14014 ( +279) 145290 ( +2838) 48506 ( +2153)
Fri 10 April 2020 14239 ( +225) 147665 ( +2375) 50312 ( +1806)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 15887 (+525) 128948 (+4316) 21815 (+819)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 16177 ( +457) 127998 ( +2408) 22614 ( +954)
Tue 07 April 2020 16579 ( +401) 130099 ( +2100) 23494 ( +880)
Wed 08 April 2020 16928 ( +350) 131922 ( +1823) 24299 ( +804)
Thu 09 April 2020 17231 ( +303) 133496 ( +1575) 25028 ( +729)
Fri 10 April 2020 17492 ( +260) 134852 ( +1355) 25683 ( +655)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 9605 (+1163) 336327 (+26194) 17245 (+2504)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 12437 ( +2230) 423587 ( +58948) 22643 ( +4380)
Tue 07 April 2020 15153 ( +2717) 492064 ( +68478) 28074 ( +5431)
Wed 08 April 2020 18463 ( +3310) 571613 ( +79548) 34808 ( +6734)
Thu 09 April 2020 22496 ( +4033) 664021 ( +92408) 43157 ( +8349)
Fri 10 April 2020 27410 ( +4914) 771367 ( +107347) 53509 ( +10352)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 8078 (+518) 92839 (+2886) 16183 (+745)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 10217 ( +1614) 102484 ( +10666) 21004 ( +2898)
Tue 07 April 2020 12133 ( +1916) 114028 ( +11544) 24366 ( +3362)
Wed 08 April 2020 14409 ( +2276) 126440 ( +12412) 28267 ( +3901)
Thu 09 April 2020 17111 ( +2703) 139691 ( +13251) 32792 ( +4525)
Fri 10 April 2020 20321 ( +3209) 153731 ( +14040) 38041 ( +5249)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 3603 (+151) 58226 (+2483) 19736 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 3512 ( +66) 61479 ( +2911) 23158 ( +1762)
Tue 07 April 2020 3570 ( +58) 64356 ( +2876) 25065 ( +1907)
Wed 08 April 2020 3621 ( +51) 67182 ( +2826) 27129 ( +2064)
Thu 09 April 2020 3666 ( +44) 69944 ( +2762) 29363 ( +2234)
Fri 10 April 2020 3704 ( +39) 72629 ( +2685) 31781 ( +2418)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 1584 (+140) 100123 (+4031) 28700 (+2300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 1740 ( +147) 102774 ( +3629) 38543 ( +6118)
Tue 07 April 2020 1872 ( +132) 105943 ( +3169) 45814 ( +7272)
Wed 08 April 2020 1988 ( +115) 108680 ( +2737) 54458 ( +8644)
Thu 09 April 2020 2086 ( +98) 111024 ( +2344) 64733 ( +10275)
Fri 10 April 2020 2167 ( +81) 113015 ( +1991) 76947 ( +12213)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 4934 (+621) 47806 (+5903) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 6343 ( +1178) 57783 ( +7809) 188 ( +11)
Tue 07 April 2020 7789 ( +1446) 66813 ( +9030) 200 ( +12)
Wed 08 April 2020 9566 ( +1776) 77253 ( +10441) 213 ( +13)
Thu 09 April 2020 11747 ( +2181) 89326 ( +12073) 226 ( +14)
Fri 10 April 2020 14426 ( +2679) 103285 ( +13959) 241 ( +15)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 401 (+28) 6830 (+387) 205 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 455 ( +38) 7400 ( +505) 218 ( +4)
Tue 07 April 2020 489 ( +34) 7913 ( +513) 219 ( +1)
Wed 08 April 2020 518 ( +29) 8429 ( +516) 220 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 542 ( +24) 8945 ( +516) 220 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 561 ( +20) 9456 ( +512) 220 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 1766 (+115) 17851 (+1224) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 1883 ( +117) 18174 ( +699) 250 ( +0)
Tue 07 April 2020 1985 ( +103) 18790 ( +616) 250 ( +0)
Wed 08 April 2020 2073 ( +88) 19327 ( +537) 250 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 2147 ( +74) 19790 ( +463) 250 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 2209 ( +61) 20187 ( +397) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 94 (+15) 4102 (+475) 134 (+18)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 116 ( +20) 4361 ( +340) 169 ( +32)
Tue 07 April 2020 140 ( +24) 4691 ( +330) 198 ( +29)
Wed 08 April 2020 169 ( +29) 5007 ( +316) 221 ( +23)
Thu 09 April 2020 204 ( +35) 5304 ( +297) 238 ( +17)
Fri 10 April 2020 246 ( +42) 5579 ( +276) 250 ( +12)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 715 (+49) 21100 (+595) 6415 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 767 ( +52) 20919 ( +389) 8980 ( +1811)
Tue 07 April 2020 814 ( +47) 21243 ( +323) 11248 ( +2268)
Wed 08 April 2020 856 ( +42) 21510 ( +267) 14089 ( +2841)
Thu 09 April 2020 893 ( +37) 21730 ( +220) 17648 ( +3559)
Fri 10 April 2020 925 ( +32) 21910 ( +180) 22107 ( +4458)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 1447 (+164) 19691 (+1260) 3751 (+504)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 06 April 2020 1578 ( +133) 20542 ( +1063) 4668 ( +733)
Tue 07 April 2020 1695 ( +117) 21488 ( +947) 5538 ( +870)
Wed 08 April 2020 1794 ( +99) 22319 ( +830) 6571 ( +1032)
Thu 09 April 2020 1877 ( +82) 23038 ( +719) 7795 ( +1225)
Fri 10 April 2020 1943 ( +66) 23653 ( +615) 9248 ( +1453)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.